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Prediction for CME (2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-28T22:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26236/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric partial halo CME seen directed primarily towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption centered around N25E25 with liftoff starting around 2023-07-28T21:10Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUV and COR2 imagery after a data gap from 2023-07-28T20:05Z to 2023-07-29T01:05Z. Arrival signature: Two consecutive spikes of B_total to >11nT separated by 5 hours, the second one (at ~16Z) likely marking the start of the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T10:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T19:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Jul 29 1249 UTC
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday 15:48 UTC. It has an estimated speed of 500 km/s and is associated with an M4 flare that took place on the west solar limb. There is a chance of directly affecting Earth's environment, otherwise, a glancing blow is to be expected in the first half of 1 Aug.
Another partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday 23:12 UTC. This is associated with a large filament eruption that took place at the NE of the solar disk. This second CME is likely to arrive at Earth's environment at the same time as the first as it has a similar speed and was launched with only a few hours difference. Hence, the two CME are expected to be detected as one event at L1.
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Lead Time: 68.65 hour(s)
Difference: -9.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-07-29T13:29Z

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